Impuguke mu bijyanye n’ubumenyi bw’Ikirere(Meteorologist), Alphonse Mutabazi, avuga ko kuba iteganyagihe ry’Ikigo Meteo-Rwanda ryibeshya ku rugero ruto (rutarenga 40% mu gihe ari iry’iminsi 10), ari ikimenyetso cy’imikorere myiza yo kwizerwa n’abantu.
Urugero rutangwa ku iteganyagihe ry’iminsi 10 yari igize igice cya 3 cy’ukwezi kwa Werurwe (kuva tariki 21 kugera tariki 31 Werurwe 2026), rwerekana ko mu gace kose kegereye umupaka w’iburasirazuba bw’u Rwanda hari hateganyijwe imvura ibarirwa hagati ya milimetero 50 na milimetero 70.
Nyuma yaho ubusesenguzi bw’iryo teganyagihe bwakozwe na Meteo Rwanda bwerekanye ko muri ako gace hamwe na hamwe haje kugwa imvura ibarirwa hagati ya milimetero 27mm na 46mm, ukuri kw’ibyagaragaye kukaba kubarirwa hagati ya 55%-65% (mu gihe kwibeshya byageze ku rugero rwa 35%).
Hari n’aho urugero rwo kwibeshya rwagiye munsi ya 35% nk’uko ikarita ibigaragaza, ariko hakaba n’ahabonetse imvura nke cyane ugereranyije n’iyari iteganyijwe.
Mutabazi avuga ko impamvu ingano y’imvura ipimirwa muri milimetero, ari uko ibitonyanga by’amazi yuzuye litiro imwe iyo biguye ku butaka buzitiye kandi bukurungiye neza, ku buso bugera kuri metero imwe kuri imwe, uwapimisha ilate(latte) yasanga haretse ikiziba kireshya na milimetero imwe y’ubuhagarike.
Mutabazi ashima ko umuturage n’ubwo atazi ibijyanye na milimetero nk’igipimo cy’ingano y’imvura yaguye, we anyurwa n’uko yabonye imvura nk’uko biba byatangajwe, akaba ari byo bihesha iteganyagihe rya Meteo Rwanda kwizerwa.
Mutabazi wakoreye Meteo Rwanda imyaka hafi 10 agira ati “Tutagiye mu mibare, icyiza ni uko umuturage yabwiwe ko imvura izagwa kandi koko yaraguye, ndetse yanabaye nyinshi muri iki gihe cy’itumba, kuba iteganyagihe ryaragezweho ku kigero kibarirwa hagati ya 50% na 60%, bivuze ko Meteo Rwanda yageze ku ntego zayo, ikaba rero ikora neza.”
Asobanura ko iteganyagihe ry’isaha imwe cyangwa iry’amasaha make riba ryizewe ku rugero rwegereye cyane 100% (kuko ibicu mu kirere biba byamaze kugaragaza ko bigiye gutanga imvura), ariko ko iyo bateganyije iry’igihe kirekire, ikigero cyo kwibeshya kigenda cyiyongera.
Ati “Ubundi iteganyagihe ry’amasaha 3 kugira ngo ryibeshye biba ari gake cyane cyane, iry’amasaha 6 na bwo ukuri kugabanukaho gato, iry’amasaha 24 kwibeshya bikagera nko kuri 10%, 90% bikaba byo, iyo ugeze ku iteganyagihe ry’ukwezi cyangwa iry’amezi 3 kwibeshya birashoboka rwose, kuko hari ubwo ushobora gushingira ku bimenyetso by’imvura ituruka mu nyanja ya Atalantika, ariko iby’inyanja y’u Buhinde bikabyuka kandi mbere wabonaga ituje.”
Icyakora, kugira ngo Meteo Rwanda ikomeze kugabanya ikigero cyo kwibeshya, hakenewe ibikoresho byinshi byo kubaka nibura sitasiyo imwe muri buri murenge wo mu Rwanda, byaba na ngombwa muri buri kagari hagashyirwa ubupimiro bw’imvura, hanyuma abahegereye bagatozwa kubicunga, kubikoresha ndetse no gutanga raporo y’ibyo babona buri gihe.
Imvura iva he?
Ubusanzwe kugira ngo imvura iboneke bisaba ko inyanja ngari zigize isi(cyane cyane iy’u Buhinde ari na yo yegereye u Rwanda) zimara iminsi myinshi zishyushywa n’izuba mu gihe cy’impeshyi cyangwa mu rugaryi, umwuka w’amazi ashyushye ukajya mu kirere maze umuyaga wawugurukana uwuzana hejuru y’ahari ubutaka, wa mwuka urakonja, ukiyegeranya ugahinduka ibicu, byaremera akaba byo bitanga imvura.
Iyo nta zuba ryinshi ryavuye mu nyanja ngo zishyuhe zohereze ibicu by’amazi byinshi mu kirere, icyo gihe hatera ibihe by’amapfa(babyita La Niña), ariko na none iyo mu nyanja havuye izuba ryinshi zigashyuha cyane, zitangira kohereza mu kirere ibicu bifite ubuhehere bukabije, ku buryo abantu batangira kubona imvura nyinshi iteza imyuzure mu gihe cy’itumba n’umuhindo(babyita El Niño).
Icyakora akenshi mu nyanja hava izuba riri ku kigero kiringaniye, bikaba ari byo Ikigo gishinzwe Ubumenyi bw’Ikirere gishingiraho kivuga ko hazagwa imvura iri ku kigero cy’impuzandengo y’isanzwe igwa mu gihe runaka.
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